Strategy card
Old Pal 1.1
The sharpest sibling — concentrated, high-conviction positioning under a volatility brake, built on Centaurium 1.1.
Strategy card
- Name
- Old Pal 1.1
- Released
- September 2026
- Built on
- Centaurium 1.1 — the custom-trained AI forecaster
- Universe
- US mid-cap equities · long-only · 80 names
- Status
- Paper trading only, on a broker demo account. No real money, and no live track record yet.
- Risk shape
- Concentrated and high-conviction, aimed at long-run compounding, with a volatility target that trims exposure when markets get rough. Expect drawdowns deeper than the index.
- Approach
- Holds a pair of highest-conviction names read from the model’s forecast path rather than a single bet, sizes them against a volatility target, and rotates when the ranking turns.
Who it’s for: Copiers who accept deep drawdowns for a shot at outsized upside, and want the concentration managed rather than unlimited. The edge is risk-shaping and universe selection, not stock-picking — better-shaped equity exposure, clearly labelled.
How we name and version strategies → · About Centaurium 1.1 →
The 2022–2024 backtest
Three years that did the work of a cycle: a bear (2022), a choppy recovery (2023) and a bull (2024). Here is how Old Pal 1.1 behaved in each, next to the S&P 500.
In the 2022 bear market it gave back 12.0% against the S&P 500’s 18.1% — shallower than the index, but this is the deepest-drawdown strategy on the menu and 2022 was not its worst stretch.
Year by year
| Setting | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 7yr | Max DD | Calmar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentrated · two names, ~15% vol target | −12.0% | +8.5% | +51.3% | +21.4% | −31.0% | 0.51 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −18.1% | +26.3% | +25.0% | +18.2% | −25.0% | 0.44 |
Over a full cycle
Markets do not repeat 2024 forever. We assume a realistic cycle — of every 7 years, 1 looks like 2022 (bear), 3 like 2023 (neutral) and 3 like 2024 (bull) — and compound the three actual backtest years accordingly.
Compounds above the index in the backtest, with a deeper maximum drawdown than the index. Most of the return came from a single year.
Medium confidence on the shape, low on the level. It is the one intraday line that survived a change of model recipe, a re-run and a change of random seed — which is why we trade it. But the return is lopsided: 2024 contributed +51.3% against 2023’s +8.5%. Read the annual bars, not the headline.
Explore the full backtest
The complete reconstructed daily curve and every single trade, pulled live from the backtest file. Search it, sort it, zoom the chart — the receipts, not a summary.
Loading the backtest…
Every trade
Couldn’t load the backtest file. Please try again later.
Transparency
The in-sample backtest above sits next to real results once live — including the gap between them.
Published rules auto-halt this strategy if live performance breaks down against its backtest. No moving goalposts.
Better-shaped equity exposure, clearly labelled. No claim to beat the market by picking winners.
Version history
| Version | Released | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Old Pal 1.0 | Jun 2026 | First published version, on Centaurium 1.0. Record closed 2026-09-08. |
| Old Pal 1.1 | Sep 2026 | Re-derived on Centaurium 1.1. The mechanism changed with it — see “What changed in 1.1” below — so this is a new record, not a continuation of 1.0’s. |