Model card
Centaurium 1.1
Centaurium 1.1 forecasts a whole trading day in odds, and its bands hold their stated coverage at every five-minute step of it — from the open to the close. A strategy can set targets, stops and sizes from those bands at any horizon of the session.
Model card
- Name
- Centaurium 1.1
- Released
- September 2026 · 5-minute US-equity model
- Type
- Custom-trained time-series foundation model · probabilistic forecaster
- Training corpus
- ~1.57 billion US-equity 5-minute bars · ~10,000 tickers · 2000–2026 · regular trading hours
- Output
- Calibrated probability paths over the full trading day — 78 five-minute steps per name
Centaurium states odds per name, not a single guess, and the strategies rank those odds across the universe rather than backing a high-conviction call. Risk-shaping, not alpha. The base model and training recipe are never published — that is the moat.
What changed
A calibration release. The forecast horizon a strategy can actually use goes from the first hour of the session to the full trading day.
At every one of the 78 five-minute steps of a trading day, the stated 90% band contains about 88% of realized outcomes — flat from the first step to the last. Centaurium 1.0’s bands held their coverage for roughly the first hour; Centaurium 1.1’s hold it across the whole day.
On two windows: the first quarter of 2026 on vendor data, and April to early September 2026 on the prices of our execution venue, Interactive Brokers.
Directional accuracy is unchanged within measurement noise. This release is about the width of the bands, not the call.
Under the hood: the model is now trained so that its objective covers the whole trading-day horizon it is asked to forecast, with a training context that matches the live one. Read the release note →
Strategies built on Centaurium 1.1
All three are derived on this model and published with their 2022–2024 backtests. All three are paper-traded only — no real money, and no live track record yet.
Version history
| Version | Released | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Centaurium 1.1 | September 2026 | In production. Three published strategies run on Centaurium 1.1. |
| Centaurium 1.0 | June 2026 | Superseded by Centaurium 1.1 in September 2026. Its three strategies closed on 8 September 2026. |
Status
In production. Three published strategies run on Centaurium 1.1.
Released as Centaury, renamed Centaurium in September 2026. Centaury is the common name, Centaurium the genus — a bitter herb in the gentian family. Same model, same version numbers.