Model card
Centaurium 1.0
The first production forecaster. It forecasts a probability distribution for each name — odds, not a single guess. The strategies rank those odds across the universe and tilt toward the favourable ones — a small, broad edge that shapes risk rather than picks winners.
Model card
- Name
- Centaurium 1.0
- Released
- June 2026 · 5-minute US-equity model
- Type
- Custom-trained time-series foundation model · probabilistic forecaster
- Training corpus
- ~1.57 billion US-equity 5-minute bars · ~10,000 tickers · 2000–2026 · regular trading hours
- Output
- A probability distribution of short-horizon moves per name — odds, not a single guess
Centaurium’s edge per name is small, and it is cross-name — it ranks names against each other rather than backing any single high-conviction call. Risk-shaping, not alpha. The base model and training recipe are never published — that is the moat.
What changed
The first release. Its bands hold their stated coverage for roughly the first hour of the session, which is what bounded the strategies built on it.
The stated 90% band holds its coverage over roughly the first hour of the trading day, then widens out of calibration. A strategy could size and place from it at short horizons only.
Its three strategies read their targets and stops off those bands, so the usable horizon capped what they could express. Centaurium 1.1 lifts the limit to the whole session.
On the corrected bands the cross-name ranking behind Boulevardier 1.0 stops trading — it had been riding the older model’s miscalibration. We retired it rather than re-point a strategy whose edge we could no longer reproduce.
The 1.0 cards stay published as frozen records: a strategy that stopped running is part of the track record.
Strategies built on Centaurium 1.0
All three closed on 8 September 2026. Their pages stay up as the frozen 1.0 record.
Version history
| Version | Released | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Centaurium 1.1 | September 2026 | In production. Three published strategies run on Centaurium 1.1. |
| Centaurium 1.0 | June 2026 | Superseded by Centaurium 1.1 in September 2026. Its three strategies closed on 8 September 2026. |
Status
Superseded by Centaurium 1.1 in September 2026. Its three strategies closed on 8 September 2026.
Released as Centaury, renamed Centaurium in September 2026. Centaury is the common name, Centaurium the genus — a bitter herb in the gentian family. Same model, same version numbers.