Strategy card
Old Pal 1.0
The sharpest sibling — concentrated, high-conviction positioning, built on Centaurium 1.0.
Strategy card
- Name
- Old Pal 1.0
- Released
- June 2026
- Built on
- Centaurium 1.0 — the custom-trained AI forecaster
- Universe
- US mid-cap equities · long-only
- Status
- Closed 2026-09-08. Old Pal 1.1 carries the name forward on Centaurium 1.1, but with a different mechanism — treat the two records as separate.
- Risk shape
- Concentrated and high-conviction, aimed at long-run compounding. Expect deeper drawdowns than the index, especially in bear years.
- Approach
- Concentrates into the highest-conviction name and lets winners run within a managed cap path, rather than spreading thinly across the universe.
Who it’s for: Copiers who accept deep, possibly prolonged drawdowns for a shot at outsized upside from a single high-conviction bet. The edge is risk-shaping and universe selection, not stock-picking — better-shaped equity exposure, clearly labelled.
How we name and version strategies → · About Centaurium 1.0 →
The 2022–2024 backtest
Three years that did the work of a cycle: a bear (2022), a choppy recovery (2023) and a bull (2024). Here is how Old Pal 1.0 behaved in each, next to the S&P 500.
2022 was milder than the index this time (−6.6% vs SPY’s −18.1%) — but that is one name’s path, not evidence of resilience. A different single-name draw could look very different.
Year by year
| Setting | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 7yr | Max DD | Calmar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concentrated · in-sample | −6.6% | +28.3% | +20.5% | +19.4% | −37.5% | 0.38 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | −18.1% | +26.3% | +25.0% | +18.2% | −25.0% | 0.44 |
Over a full cycle
Markets do not repeat 2024 forever. We assume a realistic cycle — of every 7 years, 1 looks like 2022 (bear), 3 like 2023 (neutral) and 3 like 2024 (bull) — and compound the three actual backtest years accordingly.
Compounds at roughly index level, with deeper maximum drawdowns than the index. The backtest’s upside came from a single held position rather than a diversified edge.
Lowest confidence of the 1.0 trio: the entire 2023-2024 return traces to one still-open position (entered January 2024) that never triggered its exit for the rest of the year. That is not a modeling artifact — it is the concentration risk this strategy carries, realized. A different single-name draw could look nothing like this one; treat the figures above as one high-variance outcome, not an expectation. The −37.5% drawdown above is measured on daily closes, the same basis as the chart and the other strategies; marked intraday, the same stretch reached about −54%.
Explore the full backtest
The complete reconstructed daily curve and every single trade, pulled live from the backtest file. Search it, sort it, zoom the chart — the receipts, not a summary.
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Every trade
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Transparency
The in-sample backtest above sits next to real results once live — including the gap between them.
Published rules auto-halt this strategy if live performance breaks down against its backtest. No moving goalposts.
Better-shaped equity exposure, clearly labelled. No claim to beat the market by picking winners.
Version history
| Version | Released | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Old Pal 1.0 | Jun 2026 | First published version, on Centaurium 1.0. Record closed 2026-09-08. |
| Old Pal 1.1 | Sep 2026 | Succeeded by Old Pal 1.1 on Centaurium 1.1 — same risk shape and family, but a different mechanism, so a separate record. |